AdvertisementHong Kong propertyBusinessAll signs point to a rebound in Hong Kong’s housing market: Morgan Stanley analyst
A combination of factors – falling interest rates, rising rents and stamp duty removal – bodes well for the market after years of downturn
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Hong Kong’s housing market may be on the verge of a sharp rebound and a new upcycle after four years of decline, according to Praveen Choudhary, head of Asia gaming, Hong Kong and India property research at Morgan Stanley.
Choudhary expects home prices to rise about 10 per cent in 2026 – among the most bullish forecasts for a market that has fallen roughly 30 per cent from a peak in 2021. For him, the call is less about a single year’s gain and more about a shift in the cycle after years of drag.
The shift in momentum was a combination of several factors: falling borrowing costs, rising rents and policy changes introduced earlier in the downturn finally starting to take effect.
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“When I look at the numbers and the weightings of different factors, I’ve never been as convinced as I am today,” Choudhary said.
One of the most important and overlooked factors, he said, was the government’s decision in 2024 to abolish stamp duties that for more than a decade imposed levies of up to 30 per cent on buyers and sellers. The move initially drew little response, coming at a time when prices were still falling and confidence remained weak.
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